Why Do Businesses Have Sophisticated Models For Media Investment But Rely On Spreadsheets For Far Bigger Customer Decisions?
Media optimisation has become an established analytical discipline. Customer management, with its much broader commercial scope and complex interactions, has not. Now that businesses have invested heavily in customer data infrastructure, why aren’t they building the models to make better decisions?
Why Ryanair Prime Failed: The Modelling Gap
Ryanair Prime launched in March 2025 and closed eight months later. It attracted 55,000 members who paid €4.4 million in subscription income and took more than €6 million in fare discounts. Prime did not fail because customers behaved unexpectedly. It worked exactly as it was designed to work, which is a different and more uncomfortable cautionary tale. The risk was visible in Ryanair’s own data before launch, and was either not modelled or not acted a upon.
Loyalty Economics: Shaping – And Then Re-Shaping – Habit for Maximum Return
Early experience defines a customer’s long-term pattern — but that’s only half the story. Once behaviour stabilises, incentives can be used not to maintain the habit, but to disrupt it deliberately and steer value in more profitable directions.
Why Pricing And Loyalty Strategies Should Be Formulated Together
Service industries live and die on repeat behaviour. A single transaction is rarely profitable; value emerges through renewal and habit. Yet most firms still separate the levers that shape that behaviour. Pricing belongs to finance; loyalty sits with marketing; promotions sit with sales. The result is predictable: prices move one way, incentives another, and customers learn that value is arbitrary. The truth is simple: pricing, promotions, and loyalty are three expressions of the same behavioural contract. They should be designed as one system.
Habit Formation: What Memory Engrams Teach Us About Repeat Customer Behaviour
Recent neuroscience shows that once a behaviour is encoded in memory, familiar cues can reactivate it – but the most enduring habits mix stability with surprise. Loyalty grows when the mechanics are predictable and the outcomes unpredictably delight.